Everyone’s Oscar Nomination Predictions Will Probably Be Wrong

When the Golden Globes and then the Critics’ Choice Awards anointed many of the same winners last week—Allison Janney, Sam Rockwell, Gary Oldman, Guillermo del Toro, and Frances McDormand all had reasons to celebrate—it felt like this highly volatile awards season was finally settling down, or at least rallying around front-runners at last.

But there are still six full weeks left to go before Oscar night, and besides, all of these people have to get nominated before they can start practicing their acceptance speeches. With the Oscar nominations announcement coming Tuesday morning, this week’s Little Gold Men podcast finds Mike Hogan, Richard Lawson, Joanna Robinson, and Katey Rich attempting to make final predictions, while admitting how particularly difficult that task feels this year. (For more set-in-stone predictions from the VF.com team, go here.) Sure, Janney and Laurie Metcalf have dominated the supporting-actress category, but how do you predict whether Holly Hunter sticks around or is ousted by a dark horse like Hong Chau? How much should we assume the allegations of sexual misconduct against James Franco, published days before Oscar voting ended, impacted the voters? And should we get our hopes up that the cinematography branch will make history by nominating a woman for the first time ever?

Listen to this week’s episode of Little Gold Men above, and for more episodes, find the show on Apple Podcasts, where you can also rate the show and leave a review.

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